Matrixport, a provider of cryptocurrency services, has projected that Bitcoin BTC/USD could potentially reach a value of $125,000 by the end of 2024.
This optimistic prediction is based on historical data indicating that a prolonged bullish trend, characterized by a significant increase in market value, typically follows the confirmation of the end of a bear market, Coindesk reported.
This confirmation is signaled when prices reach a 12-month high for the first time in at least a year.
This key indicator was activated last month when Bitcoin prices exceeded $31,000, the highest level since June 2022.
Similar signals were observed in August 2012, December 2015, May 2019, and August 2020, each followed by a price rally in the subsequent years.
Markus Thielen, Matrixport’s Head of Research and Strategy, stated in a report, “On June 22, 2023, Bitcoin recorded a new one-year high, marking the first such instance in a year. Historically, this signal has signified the conclusion of bear markets and the commencement of new crypto bull markets.”
Thielen further said, “If we take history as a reference, Bitcoin prices could rise by +123% over twelve months and by +310% over eighteen months – based on the average return of the signals triggered in 2015, 2019, and 2020. This could push prices to $65,539 in twelve months and $125,731 over eighteen months.”
Thielen chose to exclude the 2012 signal and the subsequent 5,285% price increase in 2013, describing it as an “epic, out-of-proportion” bull market.
Matrixport’s prediction aligns with Bitcoin’s historical pattern of experiencing sharp upward trends in the 12 to 18 months following a halving of the mining reward.
The next halving, which will reduce the new coins awarded per block from 6.5 BTC to 3.25 BTC, is expected to occur in March/April 2024.
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