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Black Box and Black Hole – Analytics & Forecasts – 6 May 2023

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We all understand perfectly well what a black hole is.

Once you get there, there is no going back.

This is a very rare phenomenon and event by the standards of space.

Such situations are also rare in market conditions.

Usually they are called Gaps, they also have approximately the same comparable properties.

If you hit the Gap, there will be no way back.

Gaps can kill your account Gaps can even blow up a broker.

A gap can create a huge negative on the account that the broker cannot cover in the market and goes broke (this has happened before)

Usually called a gap, a huge hole in the market is a gap with a huge spread, as huge as the mass inside the black hole.

2 hours after the FOMC statements, a large bank in the US exploded, more and more banks are starting to explode lately.

This happens very rarely, it hurts the dollar very much, which has gone through 3 defaults since 1950.

Unfortunately, today too many people’s lives are tied to the dollar.

The gap was due to the strong collapse of the dollar, which contributed to the growth of gold.

A lot of people use the Grid and Martingale for gold, almost all of them have either made huge profits or blown their account.

It’s impossible to predict. This has never happened before in history, so the systems just weren’t ready for it.

This is normal and no one is to blame for this. Gold Way also made relatively small losses because of this.

These are fixed losses that we can recover, this is not critical, but unpleasant and does not depend on us in any way.

Gold Way is an open system and we don’t use history patches or even news when setting up.

The algorithm constantly monitors the broker’s volatility and if it exceeds the allowable values, protection is triggered.

This works even better than a simple news filter that pauses before and after strong news.

I always believe that the system should have a margin of safety and, unlike other systems, all this is open and accessible.

We divided the type of news into strong and ultra strong news.

Now this is a different type that we can limit on top of the volatility filter and protect ourselves even more.

FOMC and NonFarmPayroll news appear very rarely, about 1 time per month/quarter.

Therefore, we may completely or almost completely prohibit trading during the release of such news.

In the current realities, such strong news can again blow up another bank in the US and a Gap will occur.

Today, such protection is needed, previously it has already worked together with the usual strong news.

On Wednesday FOMC occurred at 21:30, the news filter worked for 2 hours and protection from strong news ended at 23:30

And we only needed 15 extra minutes to prevent the Gap at 23:45.

We did everything right and protected ourselves from the news, but could not predict (it is impossible) that this could bring down a large bank in the US after the news.

Many systems didn’t use the news filter at all and they blew their account, I won’t name names.

Such gaps can happen between Friday and Monday and this is normal, because. complex events can occur during the weekend.

But this does not happen within 1 hour, as it was on Wednesday.

This is not normal and trading in the market in any case is accompanied by risk.

You can never know that Biden fell off his bike or that Trump’s wig fell off (just kidding, it’s not a wig)

Therefore, I recommend not to exceed the risk for one pair by more than 5%, it is better to always use several trading systems and diversify your account.

This will reduce risks and increase profits.

Be careful not to fall off the bike so that such gaps do not happen again!


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