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Wednesday, June 12, 2024

BTC price risks $27K loss as Bitcoin trend lines brew ‘bullish cross’

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Bitcoin (BTC) headed toward $27,000 after the May 11 Wall Street open as bulls failed to show strength.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

BTC price “rolls over” after brief recovery

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it risked a further loss of support.

After a modest recovery from local lows seen the day prior, the pair remained weak, even as new United States macro data offered bullish cues.

“Dump was retraced but then price quickly rolled over again,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades summarized.

“We’re still trading at the range lows and until broken I think shorts aren’t great R:R. Bulls need to show strength by retaking the daily open for me to consider a possible reversal scenario.”

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As Cointelegraph reported earlier, market participants continued to prepare downside targets, with many focusing on the area around $25,000.

“I remain short personally, but for anyone not in a short yet i would wait until we lose $27,000 then look to short this support zone loss,” fellow trader Crypto Tony continued.

“For now we are holding it so no reason to short just yet.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Tony/Twitter

Among the bullish voices on the day was trader and analyst Moustache, who in an optimistic analysis focused on longer-term price trends.

Specifically, two moving averages, the 20-week and 200-week, were about to stage a form of “golden cross,” wiping out their interplay from September 2022, months before Bitcoin’s latest cycle low.

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“In September 2022, there was a bearish cross of the SMA 20/200 line for the first time on record. This gave many people the opportunity to buy $BTC at ~15k,” Moustache explained.

“And now? The SMA 20/200 is about to cross bullishly. Price above blue = Always bullish (see ‘15,‘19).”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Moustache/Twitter

U.S. data joins CPI, dealing fresh blow to inflation

On macro, meanwhile, encouraging U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and unemployment data gave crypto investors cause for cautious celebration.

Related: Bitcoin trader eyes $63K BTC price for new Bollinger Bands ‘breakout’

Jobless claims were up on the day, while PPI conformed to expectations of inflation continuing to trail off.

Together with similar signals from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) the day prior, the odds were on for interest rates to stop rising in June, financial commentator Tedtalksmacro reacted.

“US unemployment claims higher to +264k and PPI in-line with consensus on the headline + core prints. More data conducive to a pause in June,” he tweeted.

A further post argued that “Today’s US PPI numbers reaffirm that the path of least resistance for CPI inflation is down.”

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Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

The latest readings from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed market consensus for a June rate hike pause at over 96%.

Magazine: Unstablecoins: Depegging, bank runs and other risks loom

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.